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心 理学赌徒 - 一个赌徒的悖论

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认知错误,并涉及独立的随机事件相关的事件处理逻辑错误 - 一个赌徒(称为赌徒的谬论),又称妄想选手阿列克谢·伊万诺维奇·幻觉和妄想蒙特卡洛的悖论。特别是,它被 认为是一些非常惊 人的系列的扩展的事件是不太可能比一个事件中断这一系列。例如,我们抛硬币五次,下降5连冠的尾巴。什么是第六次在连续下降尾巴的概率是多少?悖论在于, 通过这个事件的概率的赌徒的误解:概率放倒6尾一排是1/64,因此,它的尾巴落在第六次在一排的概率是1/64。正是这种推理错误的,因为1/64是越 来越尾巴6次审判之前确定的行的可能性。而此时它已经被抛出5尾巴的时候,使用公式的条件概率。抛出6尾巴已经扔了5尾的概率,前提是一样的抛出5尾巴和 一只老鹰在已经扔了5尾,即一半的条件概率。
 
 
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